Question by Li shi on population projection

According to UN projection, total world population will exceed 7 billion in 2013.
To want extent do you agree that such a prediction is of little value.

This is not a research paper, so we take the question at its face value (pun intended)!

The value of the data has two aspects:
1. The validity of the data – is it accurate? For this refer to earlier posting on VJCNJC questions
Discuss validity of the statement in the context of recent pop trends in last 40 years. Can be found in earlier posting on VJC NJC paper, but skip the part on EM and ELDC issues.

2. The applicability of the data.
Population data is use mainly to project allocation of resources. At national level it involve projecting needs for social security and retirement needs for an aging population and the implementation of anti natal policies and education for a young and growing population.

The main issue is that the number is too generic and is of no use because
(a) Distribution
Population growth in the major areas of the world is far fromhomogeneouss. Even at UN level, the actual size of global population is not of importance, it is where the bulk of the growth is occurring, it is whether these places have the means to provide reasonable standard of living for the population. Where should UN/IMF/WB/CCK channel the resources to?

(b) Projection for fertility and mortality
Data on fertility growth reveals specific policy needs where to increase or discourage birth, data on mortality reveal inadequacy in areas especially if IMR is high but population number alone is of no use.

(c) Ratio to resource availability
What is the state of resource availability in 2017? Does 7 million people represent over or under population? This is also closely linked to (a)
Are we below or above carrying capacity? Even using more scientific models like Limits to Growth model (COR), which part of the curve are we at?

Note that the 7 billion figure means nothing to YOU! It cannot tell you about the future that you are going to face. It cannot tell you which part of the world will be best to migrate to? It does not even tell you if whether 7 billion is good or bad!

Note also there are no new materials in the essay outline, I merelysummariese what you know.